October 25, 2020

Pandemic Update, US UK Africa

By on October 18, 2020 0 3 Views
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Looks like 10% in US now exposed

6,934,233 (21%)

Deaths, 201,190

Serological surveys

Population, 330 million

Infections, 33 million

Dr. Robert Redfield to Senate Committee on Health

The preliminary results in the first round show that a majority of our nation, more than 90% of the population, remains susceptible

Expects there to be about 700 million doses of vaccines available by April

I think that’s going to take us April, May, June, possibly July

to get the entire American public completely vaccinated

Companies have begun manufacturing vaccines

Dr. Fauci, expects 50 million doses to be available in November

100 million by the end of December

Cases rising

North Dakota, Utah, Texas, South Dakota (per capita)

UK

Exposure notification system app

Points towards testing for asymptomatic

Self-isolation

Does not collect data

Glasgow university

Contact outside household bubbles

124 tested positive

600 now self-isolating in university accommodation

Students going home for the weekend?

ONS, 4 – 10 September

59,800 people community infections

1 in 900 people

6,000 new cases per day

Clear evidence of an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 aged 2 to 34 years

Higher infection rates in the North West and London

Wales

1,500 people infected

1 in 2,000 people

ONS, Deaths, 4 – 10 September

Week 37, 99 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”

1.0% of all deaths in England and Wales

Death certificate data: COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death (CEBM 16th September)

COVID-19 is the underlying cause of death (Died FROM)

COVID-19 may be present on the death certificate as a significant condition contributing to death but not the underlying cause (Died WITH)

Using, Public health England data

Up to 1st June

Early weeks

COVID -19 was the underlying cause of death in 92.2% of deaths (Died FROM)

i.e. 7.8% did not have the disease as the underlying cause of death (Died WITH)

Last 8 weeks
Up to 28th August, underlying cause in 71.2% of deaths (Died FROM)

i.e. 28.8% of deaths not directly caused by COVID-19 (Died WITH)

Scotland

Early weeks, up to 1st June

COVID-19 was the underlying cause in 94.6% of death (Died FROM)

i.e. 5.4 % did not have the disease as the underlying cause of death (Died WITH)

31st May to 10th August

76.3% from, main cause of death (Died FROM)

i.e. 23.7% did not have the disease as the underlying cause of death (Died WITH)

Worms and COVID in Africa

Inflammation in severe clinical cases of COVID-19

Worms reduce inflammation and the immune response

Multiple sclerosis, inflammatory bowel disease, allergic and autoimmune diseases

Immunomodulators in Parasitic Infestation

Infections last for years

Host often does not become very sick

Parasite counts can remain stable

Therefore, parasitic incidence could be responsible for the low number of symptomatic cases and deaths in Africa

Parasites and their protection against COVID-19- Ecology or Immunology?

Methods:

COVID-19 cases in comparison to data on helminths and malaria

Results:

Africa COVID

0.029 out of 3.3 million (0.88%) cases

1,064 out of 238,628 (0.45%) deaths.

Africa Parasites

213 out of 229 million (93%) of all malaria cases globally

204 out of 229 million (89%) of schistosomiasis cases

271 out of 1068 million (25%) of soil-transmitted helminth cases

Europe COVID

1.5 out of 3.3 million (45%) of global cases

142,667 out of 238,628 (59%) deaths

Europe Parasites

Malaria no cases

Schistosomiasis no cases

5.8 out of 1068 million (0.55%) soil-transmitted helminths cases

Inverse correlation between the incidence of COVID-19 and malaria

Inverse correlation between the incidence COVID-19 and soil-transmitted helminths

Countries with endemic malaria, soil-transmitted helminths and schistosomiasis had less COVID-19

Populations who migrate from endemic parasitic infestation lose their parasites

Studies to elucidate the relationship between parasitic infections and susceptibility to COVID-19 at an individual level are warranted

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